The earthquake in Myanmar on 28 March which also rattled Bangkok was a wild ride.

With some exceptions, including the construction site near Chatuchak, Bangkok emerged relatively unscathed. The devastation in Myanmar is a different story.

In the days and weeks ahead, we are likely to see further examples of building damage as inspections are completed.

Bangkok is quite well known for feeling the effects of earthquakes in places such as Myanmar or Indonesia. Normally, the impact is minimal. Friday's quake was the strongest by far for many years. Past earthquakes of similar intensity caused by the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar were recorded in 1839 and 1930.

Post-earthquake, building safety standards and evacuation procedures may come into focus.

On one restructuring a number of years ago, we implemented a rigorous approach to workplace safety, particularly in relation to building evacuations.

For the Head Office on the 35th floor in Bangkok, we looked at examples of companies involved in the collapse of the Twin Towers on 9/11. Some of the companies that had been affected by the 1993 basement bombing of the WTC North Tower subsequently had very strict evacuation procedures in place which assisted evacuations on 9/11. In one case, the company fitted backpacks to the back of employees' chairs containing a face mask, light and bottle of water. Another company made evacuation mandatory if there was an incident involving the other tower.

We implemented a multi-pronged approach to improving employee safety which included:

- a company-specific evacuation drill independent of the annual building drill.

- walking all fire stairs periodically to ensure there were no blockages.

- ensuring office emergency exit signs had working light bulbs so they would illuminate in the event of a power outage.

- educating employees on how many emergency exits there were and splitting the office into zones to ensure the use of all exits on an evacuation.

- placing employee lists at emergency exits so fire wardens could complete headcounts at ground level.

- storing glow sticks at emergency exits to use in case of stairwell lighting failure.

- instructing employees not to listen to anyone on the fire stairs advising them to return to their office. It was compulsory to go to the ground level and wait for an update from the company's fire wardens.

We also conducted reviews of all other offices and implemented procedures to improve safety standards. One could never rule out a fire or other incident occurring but, by improving safety standards, we could improve the chances of all employees being safely evacuated.

In the case of the Head Office, I thought it was more likely that it would be hit by an errant Government helicopter passing through the nearby air traffic corridor than a fire. We planned for a number of possible scenarios.

BBC News - Water spills from rooftop pool as Bangkok building sways

March 2025

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Some time ago, I wrote a post on business survival using a cash flow waterfall. (Cash Flow Waterfalls.)

In the past few weeks, we have seen the emergence of the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China. Airline travel has led to the spread of the virus to numerous countries, including Australia. Strict air travel policies are now in force restricting travel from China and requiring self-quarantine measures by Australians returning from China.

South East Asia is in the middle of its tourism high season. Typically, this runs from November to March in places such as Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar. Cash flow from the high season allows tourism operators to get through low season when less travellers visit these countries.

Travel restrictions on flights from China and Chinese travellers are likely to have a catastrophic impact on tourism operators relying on outbound tourism from China.

The 'fear factor' will impact other markets who normally visit South East Asia at this time. Traditionally, the US market is hyper-sensitive to disaster and medical-related events in Asia (think SARS, MERS, 2004 Tsunami). Expect significant cancellations.

Most tourism operators would now be throwing their 2020 sales forecasts in the bin. Thailand's tourism authority is pessimistically forecasting a drop in tourism of 80% year-on-year for January to April.

It is not clear how long it will take authorities in China and elsewhere to reach the point where new Coronavirus infections plateau and decrease.

For any tourism operator or ancillary business, it is essential to look at adopting a cash flow waterfall to manage creditor payments over the coming high season months and then over low season.

For those around during SARS, we remember the impact on tourism and companies asking employees to take leave or reduce to 3 or 4 day work weeks. There is always a light at the end of the tunnel but there will be some juggling of business cash flow between now and then.

PELEN

February 2020