The aptly named Move Forward Party has claimed victory in the recent Thai national elections.
But the biggest question is whether MFP and their coalition partners will be allowed to govern for a full term or will Thailand be subject to yet another military coup?
MFP's platform includes revision of the Lese Majeste laws often used as a political weapon to stifle dissent. It is not clear how quickly they will move on this reform and how it will be viewed in the corridors of power. The appointed members of the Senate under the most recent military-backed Constitution further complicate matters, including the appointment of MFP's nominee as Prime Minister.
Thailand has been the subject of many coups over the years. There's a running joke that, at some point, the Thai Navy should be allowed to mount a coup as the army takes the lead each time.
The most recent coups have been preceded by mass protests by rival groups wearing colours signifying support for their side of politics.
In 2006, yellow shirts protested the Thaksin Shinawatra government. The protests appeared to have run out of steam before Thaksin sold his stake in AIS mobile business to Singapore's Temasek Holdings after enacting a new law which increased the sector's foreign ownership limit from 25% to 49%. He also insisted no capital gains tax was payable on the approx. USD 1.88b sale proceeds. He was ousted in a coup in September 2006 and lives in exile in Dubai, periodically promising to return.
The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra hung over the 2023 election with his daughter nominated as a Prime Ministerial candidate under the Pheu Thai banner.
In 2008, the yellow shirts blockaded Suvarnabhumi Airport, stranding many travellers. It was surreal travelling the empty highways at night to U-Tapao Airport near Pattaya which became the de facto international airport for rescue flights.
In 2010, the red shirts blockaded parts of central Bangkok. The military crackdown on 19 May saw the military use live fire to quell the protests. The dead included a Japanese journalist. Numerous buildings were set alight that day, including Central World shopping complex near the centre of the protests.
19 May was probably the only time a colleague will ring me early in the morning to let me know that she wanted to go to work that day but there was a tank outside her home.
2013 saw the yellow shirts back on the streets protesting the government led by Thaksin's sister, Yingluck. Once again, parts of central Bangkok were blocked. Protests continued in various forms until 22 May 2014 when another coup was launched. Yingluck also now lives in exile in Dubai.
The 2023 election result showed voters rejecting parties affiliated with the military, including those headed by the current PM and Deputy PM. The country wants to move forward but it is not clear whether the institutions of power will permit it.
May 2023
© PELEN 2023
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