Thai-based Airlines Battle Covid Restrictions

August 15, 2021 Edward Dever

Flying under the radar is the recent creditor approval of the rehabilitation plan for Nok Air. The plan goes before the Central Bankruptcy Court on 26 August 2021 for approval.

The prospects for airlines such as Nok Air and Thai Airways seem grim at present given the surge in Covid-19 cases throughout Thailand.

In July, the Civil Aviation Authority banned all flights to and from provinces declared Covid-19 hotspots (dark red zones) forcing all airlines to halt domestic operations. Nok Air shifted its temporary base to U-tapao airport near Rayong in an effort to keep some flights operational and continue to service Phuket which has reopened to vaccinated foreign tourists under a Sandbox model, as well as limited other flights.

The Government was forced to make exceptions to the grounding of flights to support the viability of the Sandbox programs like Phuket and Koh Samui.

Reported Covid-19 cases in Thailand currently exceed 20,000 per day (out of an estimated population of 70 million). The actual case numbers are likely to be significantly higher. The Government's admission that cases are likely to double in the next month indicates a failure of current restrictions to contain the spread of the Delta variant. The Government's approach to dealing with the Delta variant has been 'too little too late' although the rollout of vaccinations continues.

After much success battling Covid-19 in 2020, several policy failures have helped the spread of Covid-19 throughout Thailand, including the failure to cancel the Songkran New Year holidays in April and shifting Covid-19 positive cases back to their home provinces to alleviate the strain on Bangkok's medical resources.

The failure to enforce a proper lockdown is linked to business pressures and an inability to offer anything more than meagre Government financial support to individuals affected by a lockdown. Lockdowns also make social distancing more difficult for multi-generational households.

With a significant portion of the country's annual GDP linked to foreign tourism, the battle ahead for Thai-based airlines and other tourism related business is a mammoth one. The Government's plans to completely open up the country to vaccinated foreign tourists by mid-October (the 120 day plan) seem in tatters with the airlines remaining on life support.

Nok Airlines PCL - Creditors’ Meeting Resolution

CAAT allows special Sandbox charter flights to Bangkok

Country to reopen 'in 120 days'

August 2021

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Thai Airways Cleared For Takeoff But Needs Funding

June 22, 2021 Edward Dever

On 15 June 2021, Thailand's Central Bankruptcy Court approved THAI's rehabilitation plan. The plan administrators will now implement it.

THAI remains financially crippled by years of mismanagement and Covid-19's coup de grace. It is now seeking around Bt 50 billion (USD 1.6 billion) over the next three years from government and private financial institutions in order to stay afloat. Current cash reserves are not expected to last past 2021.

The acting CEO hopes THAI will complete plan implementation within five years. However, if THAI remains balance sheet insolvent in three years, it faces delisting by the SET. This issue may be resolved by the proposed capital increase under the Plan. There are also plans for debt to equity conversions but these relate mainly to accrued interest amounts and will not take place until year 4 of the Plan.

THAI's plan approval comes at a time when Thailand has been hit with a third Covid-19 wave with reported cases exceeding 3,000 per day. Bangkok remains in de facto lockdown. The Thai Prime Minister has declared that the country will open to foreign tourists within the next 120 days. Phuket will be the first province opened under the "Phuket Sandbox" model on 1 July.

THAI ticket holders owed refunds may be waiting some time. While ticket holders will be paid 100% of ticket value, the deadline for repayment is 31 March 2024. THAI may also offer travel vouchers in lieu of cash.

THAI rehabilitation plan summary

June 2021

Creditors Approve THAI's Rehabilitation Plan

May 30, 2021 Edward Dever

On 19 May 2021, Thai Airways creditors approved the rehabilitation plan at an adjourned online creditors meeting.

According to THAI's SET Notice, creditors holding over 91% of debt attending the meeting and voting approved the plan, including three amendments proposed by the planner, Bangkok Bank and the Federation of Savings and Credit Cooperatives of Thailand Limited

On 28 May, the Central Bankruptcy Court set a hearing date on 15 June to consider the plan and two objections raised by creditors.

The plan, as approved by creditors, appears to be more of a standstill arrangement with creditors deferring repayment in the hope that THAI's business can be revived and no hard decisions implemented to repair the balance sheet.

THAI faces the prospect of delisting from the SET if it is unable to fix its balance sheet insolvency within three years.

It is also unclear how THAI will fund the cash required to effectively restart the business.

Thai Airways says court hearing on business restructuring moved to mid-June

May 2021

Thai Airways - Negative Equity Until 2030

March 29, 2021 Edward Dever

Thai Airways is in the midst of its rehabilitation plan with a creditors' vote on the plan scheduled for 12 May 2021.

THAI's balance sheet insolvency has forced it to make a further disclosure to the Stock Exchange of Thailand as it faces delisting.

In their SET notice on 26 March 2021, THAI indicates that it will remain balance sheet insolvent until 2030. Given that THAI has a three year period to remedy its negative equity position, it admits that the Company may be delisted in due course from the SET.

THAI also gives further insight into its rehabilitation plan, disclosing that it expects a capital increase and creditors will have the option of a debt to equity swap.

It is not clear whether the Thai Government will participate in any capital increase or debt to equity conversion in order to maintain its shareholding in THAI,

Also unclear is whether creditors will accept equity in what may become a non-listed entity.

Meanwhile THAI is disputing around half of its liabilities by claiming that these amounts relate to future expenses and were incurred after the airline entered rehabilitation proceedings.

THAI is disputing around 192 billion baht (USD 6.3 billion) claimed by 48 lessors including BOC Aviation Ltd and SMBC Aviation Capital Ltd, and another 33 billion baht (USD 1.1 billion) that Rolls-Royce says it is owed for maintenance services.

The Thai Bankruptcy Act provides for disputed claims to be resolved by the Official Receiver with a right of appeal to the Bankruptcy Court for any aggrieved party.

THAI - SET Notice - 26 March 2021

Thai Airways disputes $7.4bn of aircraft lessor claims

March 2021

When Reverse Ghost Employees Emerge On A Restructuring

February 25, 2021 Edward Dever

Reports have emerged that Thai Airways has allegedly suffered fraud by employees claiming funeral benefit payouts for themselves while continuing to work for the company.

Since 2013, this alleged fraud is estimated to have cost THAI around USD 500,000.

A number of years ago, I was involved in a restructuring which was almost derailed at the 11th hour when it became apparent that a relative of senior management was still drawing a salary from the company five years after their death.

It is very odd that THAI's Human Resources Department does not cross check its payroll against employees who have "died" with resulting payouts by the Savings Cooperative for Employees of Thai Airways.

It is worth remembering that, apparently, THAI could not even provide a single comprehensive list of its frequent flyer program members as it entered formal rehabilitation proceedings.

Thai Airways employees accused of faking death to claim funeral payout

February 2021

Thai Airways - Final Deadline For Rehabilitation Plan

January 29, 2021 Edward Dever

Thai Airways has secured a second and final extension for submission of its rehabilitation plan to the Central Bankruptcy Court. The new deadline is 2 March 2021. (THAI - final deadline)

Work on the rehabilitation plan has not prevented THAI selling some non-core assets. THAI has announced that it has completed the sale of a 15.5% stake in Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services (BAFS) to Ratch Group for Bt 2.7 billion (US$90 million). THAI retains at 7.06% stake in BAFS.

The Central Bankruptcy Court approved the sale on 3 December 2020 with completion on 19 January 2021. BAFS is no longer an affiliate of THAI. (THAI sells BAFS)

Ratch Group is 45% owned by EGAT, the Thai government electricity generating authority, so the sale is somewhat of a shuffle amongst government related entities.

The treatment of creditors under the draft rehabilitation plan remains unclear.

January 2021

Nok Air Enters Rehabilitation Proceedings

November 5, 2020 Edward Dever

Airlines are flavour of the month at Thailand's Central Bankruptcy Court.

The Court has now approved the rehabilitation petition of Nok Airlines PCL, the budget airline part owned by THAI. This follows THAI's entry into rehabilitation proceedings earlier this year.

On 4 November 2020, the Court approved the appointment of Grant Thornton Specialist Advisory Services, Nok Air CEO Wutthiphum Jurangkool and three other board members to prepare the rehabilitation plan.

Creditors may file claims for repayment of their debts within one month of the Planner's appointment being published in the Government Gazette.

Nok Air gets green light to restructure debt

November 2020

When Equity Ranks Ahead of Debt

October 9, 2020 Edward Dever

One of the more interesting aspects of Thai Airways rehabilitation will be the issue of debt to equity conversions.

THAI's debt load is not sustainable. It was not profitable before Covid-19 hit and any restructuring will necessarily involve dealing with the debt burden.

In many of the larger past restructurings in Thailand, an informal rule applied - equity ranks somewhere above unsecured debt and often above secured debt. While contrary to Thai law, it is a principle adopted by numerous significant family-owned businesses.

In one meeting, a business owner tossed the keys to his steel mill across the table towards creditors seeking debt to equity conversions, simply saying much to their horror: "Ok, you run it then." They were probably the keys to one of his cars but the point was made.

THAI is controlled by the Thai Government. While the Finance Ministry recently reduced its stake so THAI was no longer a state enterprise, the shares were shuffled sideways to a government-related fund.

It is unlikely the Finance Ministry will agree to dilute its stake in THAI as part of the rehabilitation plan. THAI as a national airline will be seen as an important part of Thailand's image with the Government in firm control for better or worse.

October 2020

Nok Air Follows THAI Into Formal Rehabilitation Proceedings

July 31, 2020 Edward Dever

Thai-based airline, Nok Air, has announced it will follow Thai Airways International into formal rehabilitation proceedings.

Nok Air is part owned by THAI (around 13%) and has been unable to fly its 18 international routes due to Covid19 and its domestic routes in 23 provinces are running at around 30% of its normal schedule.

Nok Air claims that only 200 customers are still awaiting refunds.

"Nok Air insisted on Thursday its business would be able to return to solvency despite the airline following Thai Airways' lead and filing a business rehabilitation request with the Central Bankruptcy court."

Nok Air will be just fine, insists CEO

July 2020

Thai Airways Works On Easier Option For Ticket Holders Who Requested Refunds

June 26, 2020 Edward Dever

Thai Airways has indicated that it is trying to create a solution to the prospect of over 300,000 ticket holders who have requested refunds needing to file debt repayment claims in Bangkok.

The Thai Bankruptcy Act provides that creditors are required to file claims within one month of publication of the planner's appointment in the Government Gazette. Failure to file a claim generally means all rights are lost.

THAI has apparently discussed this issue with the proposed planner and expects to announce its approach once the planner is appointed, expected in August.

Hopefully good news for THAI customers who have requested refunds, particularly those based outside Thailand who faced the prospect of needing to file claims with the Bankruptcy Court in Bangkok as well as have their documentation appropriately notarised and legalised.

THAI has also clarified that Royal Orchid Plus frequent flyer members with points balances do not need to file debt repayment claims in relation to their points. Also, ticket holders whose tickets remain unused do not need to file claims. Tickets remain valid for use in the future.

Clarification regarding the notification of the Central Bankruptcy Court, Thailand (THAI Business Reorganization)

June 2020